Friday, 22 February, 2019

United Kingdom inflation falls to 1.8%

Retail inflation eases to 2.05% in January UK inflation falls to 1.8%
Orlando Vargas | 14 February, 2019, 08:15

The Consumer Food Price Index declined to 2.17% in January.

Retail inflation in India eased to 2.05% in January compared to 2.11% in December, according to government data released on Tuesday.

Last month, 106 accounts matched or beat the CPI but that has more than doubled to 245 after the drop.

Around 15m households will see their energy bills increase by more than £100 a year from April after Ofgem said it was lifting two price caps because of rising wholesale costs. The inflation rate for services like education and health also fell, bringing down the level of core inflation, after excluding volatile items like food and fuel.

The core measure is now in the process of reversing its 2018 decline to 1.8% and the Bank of England has said repeatedly it expects the index to remain biased toward the upside for some time to come. Year-on-year house price growth is forecast to have slowed to 2.5 per cent in December, down from 2.8 per cent in November.

The retail inflation number was much lower than the market expectations, said Tushar Arora, a senior economist at HDFC Bank.

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Changes in interest rates are normally only made in response to movements in inflation but are important for financial markets because of the push and pull influence they can exert over global capital flows.

"We think stronger pay pressures will eventually show up in the inflation data".

"The further falling back in inflation facilitates the Bank of England maintaining a "wait and see" approach on interest rates until after the United Kingdom leaves the EU", Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club consultancy, said.

The Bank of England said this month that United Kingdom economic growth will likely slow further in 2019 given weakening demand from overseas and a period of increased "Brexit uncertainty" that are expected to reduce activity in the UK.

It's good news for savers who have suffered in recent years with rates that don't keep up with inflation.

However, he added: "If there is a no-deal United Kingdom exit from the European Union at the end of March, the inflation outlook will be clouded by a number of factors - most notably what happens to sterling, how well the economy holds up and what tariffs come into effect".

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