Thursday, 15 November, 2018

USA midterm elections 2018: History against Trump ahead of crucial vote

Youth turnout could hold the key in the US mid terms and threaten Trump's hold on Congress Why young Democrats hold the key to threatening Donald Trump's hold on Congress
Johnnie Parks | 06 November, 2018, 11:59

"You're going to see the largest gender gap we've ever seen". The poll of likely voters found that 46% would choose the Republican candidate, while 45% would choose the Democrat. The network identified three possible scenarios, and "our best estimate as of today is: 225 Democratic seats - just beyond the 218 needed for a majority - to 210 Republican seats, with a margin of error of plus or minus 13 seats on each, keeping the possibility open that Republicans retain control". That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP. However, misgivings rose over the president's rhetoric after a Florida man and ardent Trump supporter was charged with sending homemade bombs to more than a dozen senior Democrats and other high-profile opponents.

There is no agreed-upon threshold, but 23 seats is not a wave.

Even with the United States economy largely humming along, and Republican candidates desperate for Trump to highlight the gains, the president himself often prefers to rile up a crowd over immigration. The sitting president's party often loses ground in the first midterm after winning office, and for much of 2018, voter enthusiasm and polling has favored Democrats as well.

Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.

Still, his xenophobic rhetoric has been unprecedented for an American president in the modern era: "Barbed wire used properly can be a handsome sight", Trump told voters in Montana. If the map were anywhere close to neutral, and the environment were as it is, Democrats would be virtually guaranteed a House takeover right now. I only attended a pep rally in high school (because I was performing in it) and no sporting events because school spirit always annoyed me; I didn't attend my college graduation because I looked at it as a waste of time, but I've always voted because I wanted to know I registered my opinions the one time every two years they really matter.

However, the Democrats are expected to fall short of the two seats they need to win control of the Senate. It also predicts that 24 states will have Democratic governors and 26 will have Republican ones at the end of the night.

For Democrats, the midterm elections have been a beacon in the dark, a chance to re-emerge from the political wilderness and repudiate a president they view as a risky force.

"What the President might say, or tweet, or attribute this blue wave to ..."

"Like 2016, this will be decided by those who vote on Election Day", he wrote in a tweet Monday.

Eddie Jones predicts two referees will eventually be used in rugby union
England are looking for their first victory against the All Blacks since December 2012. We don't play like the Springboks so it's hard to replicate things the Springboks did.


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We created lots of chances and in the end we have the goal that give us important points. "It was much better". United have kept just one clean sheet in 11 Premier League games this season.


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Sergio Aguero doubled their lead six minutes later before David Silva made it three with yet another six minute interval. Sterling bagged his second of the game on 67 minutes to cap a fine individual display from the England attacker.


When Blackburn took the stage briefly, she told supporters, "If you want to vote no to Hillary Clinton and her cronies one more time, stand with me". Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, in North Dakota.

Two years later, Americans are still looking for major changes, and Democrats have been able to argue that they are the outsiders, Parks said. Bloomberg photo by Aaron P. Bernstein.

What it would mean: This would be a clear repudiation of Trump, and there would be no other way to spin it.

While Republican majorities in the House and Senate helped Trump deliver on the promises he made on the campaign trail, the loss of that advantage in either chamber could derail the momentum. "They draw on our resources, our schools, our public spaces, our hospitals and we are paying for all that!", he said, cementing the connections between immigration and welfare payments.

The outcome is clouded by the dramatically different landscape between the House and Senate. Also feeling pressure are Republican incumbents in suburban Philadelphia and the Pittsburgh area, including House Speaker Mike Turzai of Allegheny County. Political messages that deviate from stoking fear hold no charm for Trump.

Most top House races are set in America's suburbs where more educated and affluent voters in both parties have soured on Trump's presidency, despite the strength of the national economy. However, the polls slightly favour Democrats in both those toss-up senate races, according to the statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

Hitting three states in one day, with a final late rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, Trump hammered home his boast that "the Republican agenda is the American dream". "What kind of politics we expect is on the ballot". And 35 Senate seats are in play, as are nearly 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.

Democrats also lead in terms of fund-raising, by roughly $1 billion to $700 million. What happens when they actually have power and the base wants them to go further than they think is prudent?

"I'm voting for Donald Trump", Stuart Kanter said.

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