Friday, 16 November, 2018

International Monetary Fund warns Nigeria on tough times ahead

Pakistan to start talks with IMF as rupee continues to fall US / China trade war and Brexit threaten global growth says IMF
Orlando Vargas | 12 October, 2018, 11:45

The IMF expects the USA economy to grow 2.9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2005 and unchanged from the July forecast.

The IMF's latest Global Financial Stability report said near-term risks had increased over the past six months but added investors were "complacent" to the potential for a market correction.

The reason for the International Monetary Fund reducing its initial growth estimates is because of the imposition of duties on imports - read between the United States and China - and the under-performance of certain economies both developed and developing, including countries in the European Union, Great Britain, Japan, South Africa, Argentina, Turkey and Brazil.

"There are clouds on the horizon".

"An intensification of trade tensions and the associated further rise in policy uncertainty could dent business and financial market sentiment, trigger financial market volatility, and slow investment and trade", the report said.

The delegation will leave for Bali to attend the meeting taking place on the Indonesian island from October 12 to 14, sources within the Ministry of Finance said, adding that Finance Minister Asad Umar will meet the International Monetary Fund officials on the sidelines of the meeting, where he will discuss the challenges confronting the Pakistani economy and the proposed International Monetary Fund loan programme.

In a press conference at the White House on Tuesday, President Trump said "China wants to make a deal and ... they're not ready yet", adding that is a reason his administration has canceled a couple of meetings with Beijing.

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If the trade war continues, it could take a significant bite out of global growth, according to the fund.

"It's tempting to be a bit depressed about this perspective but I'm actually hopeful because there is a clear appetite to improve and expand trade", she said. U.S. output would decline by more than 0.8 per cent and China's output would dip by more than 1.6 per cent next year as a result, according to the fund's projections.

The IMF's cut to its outlook was broad-based. But it said that both would slow down more than earlier envisaged, and see growth of just 2.5 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively, next year. Two weeks after that date, Hungary's Central Statistical Office (KSH) revised first-half GDP growth up 0.1 percentage point to 4.7 percent.

He said, "Nigeria's growth, 1.9% this year; 2.3% next year".

Several emerging markets had their forecasts cut, including Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Turkey, reflecting factors including tighter credit. These assets are larger than its liabilities, putting net worth - the difference between assets and liabilities - well above 100 per cent of the GDP, the highest among emerging economies, he said.

For the eurozone, slow growth means less reductions in high unemployment rates in several countries and difficulty keeping on top of high debt levels, while Japan needs growth to ward off risky deflation.

IMF's forecasts for Hong Kong's economic outlook are mixed: it raises its forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, while cutting its forecast for 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%.

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