'Only way to rebalance oil market is stopping sanctions on Iran'
'Only way to rebalance oil market is stopping sanctions on Iran'
Ilya Naymushin Reuters
07 October, 2018, 17:13
Oil prices remain near four-year peak on rising doubts about the capability of Saudi Arabia and other oil producers to substitute the cuts in Iran's crude exports once the US imposes oil sanctions on the Islamic republic on November 4.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery was 0.9% lower at $75.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Worldwide benchmark Brentcrude oil futures were at $84.98 per barrel in early trade, up 40 cents, or 0.5%from their last close. More ominously, they said they won't be able to meet a demand for Arab light crude in the long-run if Iran is forced out of the market by the U.S.
On Thursday, Brent fell by $1.34 a barrel or 1.6 percent. Due to those uncertainties, the market is now very nervous and emotional, and traders and other market participants could continue to make decisions based on those uncertainties and push prices higher, he said.
Still, uncertainty still exists on whether other oil producing countries could fill the gap of crude oil supply to be left by Iranian sanctions. The contract is on course for a gain of around 2.5 percent for the week.
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The Trump administration has looked to Middle Eastern producers to pick up the slack left by its policy, with Saudi Arabia agreeing earlier this year to increase its oil output by a "measurable" amount and OPEC agreeing to reduce compliance with coordinated supply constraints. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.75 premium to WTI for the same month.
The Trump administration's decision to pull out of a 2015 worldwide agreement to curb Iran's nuclear programme, and a re-imposition of economic sanctions on the third-largest producer of crude - set to kick in next month - has helped to drive oil prices higher because the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries isn't expected to be able to match the country's lost output, according to CNBC. The startup could lead to an additional 500,000 barrels a day in production.
In the US, crude inventories are estimated to have increased 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts. West Texas Intermediate gained almost $2 a barrel to trade above $76. Saudi Arabia now produces some 10 million barrels of crude oil a day.
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