Thursday, 13 December, 2018

Rupee collapses to fresh low of 73.77

Sensex falls over 200 points, Nifty slips below 11,000 MARKET WRAP: Sensex rises 299 pts, Nifty reclaims 11,000 led by IT, banks
Orlando Vargas | 04 October, 2018, 15:27

Traders were concerned that a rise in U.S. interest rates and expensive oil could lead to fiscal slippage, increase inflationary pressures and raise the chances of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increasing interest rates in its monetary policy review later this week. A plunging currency may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to hike interest rates for the third time since June when it meets on Friday.

A September 19-25 Reuters poll showed 35 of 64 respondents expect a rate hike on Friday.

The rupee has depreciated over 14 percent in 2018 YTD, effectively becoming the worst performing Asian currency.

A liquidity scare erupted last month after a series of debt defaults by Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) sparked redemption pressure at other shadow banking companies.

The current account has faced additional pressure as India, like many emerging market economies, has also suffered due to rising USA interest rates drawing investors away.

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DBS economist Radhika Rao also predicted a rate hike.

Mr Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ Banking Group in Singapore, said the mix of strong United States data and the Fed chair's comments bumped up the dollar and U.S. bond yields, putting downward pressure on Asian currencies.

Analysts ruled out chances of a cut in the central bank's cash reserve ratio (CRR) on Friday.

India's gold imports are expected to rise further in the fourth quarter, putting the trade balance under more pressure, as investors seek hedges against faltering equities and the weak rupee.

Anindya Banerjee, deputy vice president, currency derivatives at Kotak Securities, added: "The RBI is ready to keep real rates high because the policy mandate is to anchor inflation. Raising the repo rate will increase the real interest rates and help in attracting fresh foreign inflows which will help in containing the rupee".

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