Monday, 10 December, 2018

Calm after storm: Global stocks rebound from trade war fears

Dow drops more than 400 points on fears of trade war with China Modal Trigger Getty Images
Ellis Copeland | 06 April, 2018, 16:01

Charles Hayter, chief executive of CryptoCompare said, "The hint of a trade war puts a bit of fear into the mix and as we all now markets correlate in various periods depending on the exogenous factors".

Who will be the winners and losers in a China-US trade war?

Efforts to end the fight are complicated by uncertainty about whether Trump is seeking quick, headline-grabbing concessions or a fundamental realignment of trade ties.

USA stock futures slid 1 percent and the dollar dipped against other major currencies .DXY , while Asian shares flitted in and out of positive territory.

While the stiff Chinese response sent global markets on a roller-coaster ride Wednesday, attention turned to whether Trump would look to make a deal or first squeeze Beijing harder.

Trump made good on his campaign promise to rein in trade by announcing sanctions on steel and aluminum imported from China in early March.

The president argues there is no trade war and his National Economic Advisor, Larry Kudlow, believes the two countries will eventually come to an agreement on trade.

"This latest intimidation reflects the deep arrogance of some American elites in their attitude towards China", the state-run Global Times said in an editorial.

Earlier this week, the Trump administration proposed 25 percent tariffs on some 1,300 Chinese industrial and other products.

The list of 1,333 goods released on Tuesday is a specific response to an investigation into Beijing's intellectual property practices ordered by Trump previous year and strikes directly at Beijing's "Made in China 2025" programme, which the US sees as a "direct threat to American economic hegemony", says Richard Staropoli, former chief information officer of the US Department of Homeland Security in the Financial Times.

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"Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers", the Republican president said.

WALL STREET: Major U.S. benchmarks ended higher.

"Hopefully the president is just blowing off steam again, but if he's even half-serious, this is nuts", Sasse said.

Analysts expect positive outlook for CPO price in anticipation of higher China demand for palm oil in the long run following the 25% tariffs slapped on USA soybean. A meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart in April 2017 helped ease out tension between the two countries and differences can be managed by entering to aggressive talks. We see United States as saying that it is going to wait at least 60 days to impose these tariffs and China has responded by saying they will not impose the tariffs until the United States does.

Nevertheless, China is keen to portray itself as a responsible actor in contrast to a "rogue" United States that is "shunning multilateral cooperation", says David Lynch in The Washington Post.

A senior US official who requested anonymity told Reuters no formal negotiating sessions had yet been set, but that the United States was willing to negotiate with China.

Chinese experts have made clear that they perceive the ever-larger rounds of US tariffs as part of a broad American challenge that goes beyond dollars and cents.

"Yes, it's possible. It's part of the process", he said when asked whether it was possible that tariffs against China are a negotiating tactic and won't go into effect. In 2016, almost three-quarters of the $7.5 billion in aircraft under the category now at risk of Chinese tariffs came from the United States (presumably made by Boeing). But that "does not mean there isn't going to be a political backlash", he said.

The new tariffs are on more than 100 American products, including chemicals, cars and soybeans.

Drop the tariffs and producers are usually better off too. The list includes 106 products across 14 categories. This would be especially attractive to China's importers if the current wide spread remains between Asia's oil-linked benchmark prices and the Henry Hub, which sets US LNG export prices.

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