Tuesday, 11 December, 2018

OECD raises outlook for Canadian growth to 2.2 per cent this year

OECD upgrades global and Japan growth outlooks for 2018 and 2019 OECD upgrades world growth outlook
Ellis Copeland | 13 March, 2018, 18:47

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecast for Canada to 2.2 per cent in 2018, up from 2.1 per cent it had forecast in November.

The OECD added that the tax and public spending reductions in the USA during the last three months and Germany's fiscal stimulus were key factors for upgrading global growth predictions in 2018 and 2019.

With mounting fears of a trade war following Mr Trump's threat of tariffs on steel and aluminium, the OECD issued a plea to avoid protectionism. The think tank said U.S. tax cuts and spending increases, combined with fiscal stimulus in Germany, were the main reasons for the improved outlook.

City and academic economists expect the United Kingdom economy to expand at an annual pace of 1.5% over the next two years, and Chancellor Philip Hammond is expected to reveal a more optimistic outlook in updated official forecasts on Tuesday.

The OECD says the revised outlook compares with growth of 3.0 per cent past year in Canada. The report cites stronger private investment, a rebound in global trade and stronger employment all pointing toward making for a broad-based recovery.

The OECD also projected to rise of global GDP growth by 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019.

This is up from a forecast last November of 3.7% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019.

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The warning comes as many countries including the European Union and Japan try to get exemptions from the USA on the metals tariffs amid threats of retaliatory measures against the world's largest economy.

The report revised 0.4% higher its predictions for United States growth - hitting 2.9% this year.

"Safeguarding the rules-based global trading system is essential to prevent the longer-term harm to growth prospects that could arise from a retreat from open markets", it said.

"I think it is very important to avoid escalation and to initiate a strengthening in the global dialogue to solve not only the problem for steel but to avoid bigger repercussions in terms of trade".

The global economy will see its strongest growth in seven years in 2018 thanks to a rebound in trade and investment.

One exception to the trend of buoyant growth was Britain, which the OECD predicts will miss out on the growth surge over the next two years, because of both Brexit and high inflation dampening consumer demand.

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