Oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and USA shale firms were scheduled to gather in Houston for the largest energy industry conference, which is the so-called CERAWeek. The IEA added that more investment would be needed to boost output after that.
The surge in USA oil production could indicate less influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - a group of 12 of the world's largest largest oil exporters that wields considerable influence on global oil prices.
"Shale oil, I don't know how we are going to live together", former Opec Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri told United States oilmen in 2016. The massive cuts to upstream investment since the collapse of oil prices in 2014 will begin to cause supply problems at the beginning of the next decade. Since the salad-and-chicken dinner last March, US output has risen roughly 1.1 million barrels a day-the equivalent of Opec member Libya. Moreover, along with the United States, other non-OPEC producers, such as Brazil, Canada, and Norway, will see increases in the coming years, mitigating the effects of OPEC's ongoing supply cuts and outages from geopolitical events, particularly those in Venezuela.
The United States, Canada and Mexico recently formed a working group to address the potential impact on Caribbean nations of the US restricting imports of Venezuelan crude.
Oil 2018, the intragovernmental organization's five-year market analysis and forecast was released in Paris.
If investment does not pick up, global spare production capacity could fall to as low as 2.2 percent of demand by 2023, the lowest level since 2007, the IEA says.
However, Birol expressed concern that such focus on cheaper short-cycle investments could create challenges in meeting long-term demand growth, with mature global oil fields declining at a rate of about 3 MMbopd each year. However, the country's more stringent policies to curb air pollution may slow growth.
Demand for ethane will expand at the fastest pace in the next five years, rising by 885,000 bpd, followed by naphtha with growth of 495,000 bpd and LPG with growth of 40,000 bpd, it forecast.
Over the same period, global consumption is expected to rise by just 1.7 million bpd, ensuring the United States captures all of the demand increase this year.
Oil prices rose early on Monday ahead of a meeting between OPEC and US shale firms in Houston, raising expectations that oil producers would discuss further how to clear a global oil glut.
The IEA's consumption forecast, which is based on GDP projections from the International Monetary Fund, assumes global economic growth will remain steady at around 3.7 percent per year through 2023.
But it said demand for gasoline and diesel would rise by just 0.7 percent each, with expansion slowed by fuel efficiency standards that now cover two thirds of the world's top auto markets.
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