Saturday, 26 May, 2018

IEA Says OPEC Almost Cleared Oil Glut But Shale Risk Looms

How soaring US exports to China are transforming the global oil game Novak: the oil market will be able to balance in 2018
Orlando Vargas | 15 February, 2018, 15:20

"First, the EIA dramatically overhauled its forecasts, predicting USA oil production would hit 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, rather than late next year", reports OilPrice.com.

Late in Monday's trading session, USA government forecasters boosted their estimates for the backlog of unfracked oil wells explorers have amassed - an indicator of future supply growth - as well as how much crude domestic drillers will pump next month.

Oil prices are supported by "statements from OPEC telling us they believe compliance to the cuts is going to be at historic highs", Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said by telephone.

“Buyers, like sellers of USA oil, started hedging WTI, ” said John Driscoll, director of Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy Services.

Crude prices rose early, then pared gains on concerns that surging United States production would outstrip output cuts from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), McGillian said.

"In just three months to November, (US) crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 bpd and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia".

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Crude prices dropped 10% last week, falling below $60 a barrel for the first time this year. Oil production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will expand by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2018, about 250,000 a day more than the cartel projected last month, according to a report published on Monday. In a report released on Tuesday, the Paris-based IEA said the surplus is being cleared by higher consumption, boosting its forecast for global demand growth this year by about 100,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million a day. He also appended that because the United States was necessarily a free market for oil, its production has gone up and down with the oil price.

USA energy companies added 26 oil rigs in the latest week, boosting the count to 791, the highest since April 2015, energy services company Baker Hughes said on Friday. The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was rallying early Monday toward $64 per barrel, more than $2 below where it started the year.

"The market is only expected to return to balance towards the end of this year".

The optimism of investors in the commodity market is connected with the rise of USA exchanges on February 12.

"OPEC crude oil production in January was steady month-on-month (m-o-m) at 32.16 million barrels per day". As production increases continue unabated, oil prices could collapse again.

"We've been under pressure.it's all been a function of the IEA report", said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Now, history could be repeating itself.

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