Saturday, 18 August, 2018

Stronger UK inflation increases pressure for BoE rate hike

Stronger UK inflation increases pressure for BoE rate hike Stronger UK inflation increases pressure for BoE rate hike
Orlando Vargas | 14 February, 2018, 18:33

The S&P 500 fell 0.31 percent to 2,654.59 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.29 percent to 6,993.05.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 2.86 percent, while USA stock futures fell, as the figures renewed investor concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at a faster pace than anticipated.

This data will be very important because, it will give them a picture of what to expect in the coming months from the BoE.

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, said the release is being overhyped. Adding fuel to the fire is the continuing stagnation of wages over the same period, with increases remaining well below the rate of inflation and putting further strain on household disposable incomes. Transport and communication gained in inflation of 1.97%.

The world's seventh largest economy is expected to grow 6.5 percent in the fiscal year ending in March, while the International Monetary Fund expects growth will pick up to 7.4 percent in 2018, and 7.8 percent in 2019 - driven by a pickup in domestic and global demand.

The increase in the core CPI brought the three-month annualized gain to 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The BLS set the January inflation index at 247.867, an increase of 0.54% over the December 2017 number.

Stronger UK inflation increases pressure for BoE rate hike

The year-over-year increase in prices was moderated by sharp price increases in January 2017, when headline inflation rose 0.6%, the sharpest rise in four years.

"The Pound has performed well during the early part of the year and that should feed into next month's reading, with many expecting inflation to start dipping significantly as we head into the spring". "The big picture story is that inflation, which pretty much flatlined for a while, is moving moving back up".

The market's muted reaction to today's stronger-than-expected CPI could be due to the fact that the spike wasn't massive, and also came on a day when January retail sales came in weaker than expected, said Mike Loewengart, VP of investment strategy at E-Trade.

Policy makers look at the core index to better gauge underlying inflation because food and energy prices tend to be volatile. In January, the inflation rate dropped to 3.0%, which is still higher than the target. Even so, equities have recovered some ground, advancing for three trading sessions in a row through Tuesday.

Chris Williamson at IHS Markit said higher than expected in January added "further pressure for policymakers to hike interest rates again, possibly as soon as May".

Sterling jumped to as high as $1.3924 after the data, up from $1.3886 beforehand.

Presenting his last full budget earlier this month before the general elections next year, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley made a significant announcement of fiscal slippage with implications for pushing inflation, revising upwards the government's fiscal deficit target for 2017-18 to 3.5 per cent of the GDP, or the equivalent of Rs 5.95 lakh crore.

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