Brexit: 'no deal would cut Scottish GDP growth by 9%'
Brexit: 'no deal would cut Scottish GDP growth by 9%'
UK analysis shows big economic hit from Brexit
09 February, 2018, 02:26
The impact of Brexit would be worse (ironically) in Brexit supporting regions.
The new revelation shows that the north east will suffer the most if Britain can't strike a deal with the EU.
By comparison, a free trade deal would hit London's growth by just 2%, growing to 3.5% in a no deal scenario, and just 1% if the country stays in the single market.
And, should the European Union become derailed with no deal - an option that has not yet been completely ruled out - then economic output in the Midlands could be hit even harder. By contrast, London would only be affected by 3.5% under the worst-case scenario.
In response to the full regional breakdown, Labour's shadow Brexit minister Paul Blomfield said: "These figures are further evidence of why the Tories must rethink their reckless approach to the Brexit negotiations".
"Our region is not prepared to take this hit, especially in the context of ceasing to be the beneficiary of vital European Union funding that has helped North East economy for many years".
"To see this figure in black and white, however, is a real shock".
North East England, in a "no deal" situation, could face a 16% hit to GDP. This is frankly a nightmare scenario for our region and for the government to be aware of this and still be willing to consider a no deal Brexit is absolute madness.
By comparison, London would sustain just a 2 per cent hit to growth if the United Kingdom gets a free trade deal, 3.5 per cent in a no deal scenario, and just 1 per cent if the country stays in the single market.
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Liberal Democrat MP Tom Brake, the party's Brexit spokesperson, said: "This is a damning outlook for Britain".
"I trust that the UK Government will reflect on the arrangements that they have put in place".
But officials said they did not show the impact of the Government's preferred post-Brexit option of an "unprecedented" economic partnership with the EU.
The SNP government's January report found that a no-deal Brexit would cost the Scottish economy nearly £13bn a year by 2030. We want some level of representation for the North in the European Parliament as you have to bear in mind that nearly half of the people who live in the North see themselves as Irish. "They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit".
"The public have a right to know, and a right to reverse this if they wish". Within hours of the documents being made available to MPs, the BBC obtained details of the analysis on a regional basis.
In Commons on Wednesday, the SNP's Stephen Gethins appeared to confirm the 12% figure for Northern Ireland in a question to Northern Ireland Secretary, Karen Bradley.
However, if there is a no-deal Brexit, the UK Government's assessment of a 9% drop in GDP is even more severe than the Scottish Government's analysis, released last month, of 8.5%.
Ministers in the European Union exit and trade (strategy and negotiations) sub-committee considered the issues of immigration and Northern Ireland on Wednesday and are expected to discuss the crucial issue of the UK's future relationship with Brussels on Thursday.
The Prime Minister's official spokesman said she had previously "made the point that what it doesn't model is the deal which she is actually seeking".
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